Diffusion
is defined as the communication process by which a new idea or new
product is
accepted by the market, while the rate of diffusion is defined as the speed
that the new idea spreads from one consumer to the next. Adoption, similar to
diffusion, also deals with the psychological decision making processes of the
individual, rather than those of an aggregate market.
Rogers
showed that a diffusion process in a social system follows an S-Curve in which
the adoption of a technology begins with slow change, is followed by rapid
change and ends in slow change as the product matures or new technologies
emerge. He also held that people adopt new technological innovations at
different times and at different rates. He then used the varying rates of
adoption to distinguish different phases in the diffusion process allowing
practitioners to assess such things as the life of a new product or service and
the application of the correct set of marketing activities at the appropriate
time.
The
adoption process tracked through the diffusion curve is a decision-making
process in which an individual passes from the initial knowledge of an
innovation to forming an attitude toward the innovation, to a decision to adopt
or reject it, then to its implementation and the use of the new idea, and
finally to confirmation of this decision.
The
cumulative number of adopters follows the above mentioned S-shaped curve. The
number of newly ‘converted’ adopters plotted as a frequency histogram against
time follows a bell-shaped Gaussian curve where the number of new adopters
rises until halfway the S-curve after which their numbers decrease, To make the
model actionable, Rogers introduced ‘innovativeness’ – the degree to which an
individual is relatively earlier in adopting new ideas than other members in a
social system. This allowed Rogers to distinguished five groups of adopters as
ideal types:
1.
INNOVATORS
The
first 2.5% of adopters are called "Innovators". Innovators are
venturesome and educated, have multiple sources of information and show greater
propensity to take risks. They appreciate technology for its own sake and are
motivated by the idea of being a change agent in their reference group. They
are willing to tolerate initial problems that may accompany new products or services
and are willing to make shift solutions to such problems.
2.
EARLY ADOPTERS
The
next 13.5% of adopters are "Early Adopters". They are the social
leaders, popular and educated. They are the visionaries in their market and are
looking to adopt and use new technology to achieve a revolutionary breakthrough
that will achieve dramatic competitive advantage in their industries. They are
attracted by high-risk, high-reward projects and are not very price sensitive
because they envision great gains in competitive advantage from adopting a new
technology. They typically demand personalized solutions and quick-response,
highly qualified sales and support.
3.
EARLY MAJORITY
The
next 34% of adopters are formed by the "Early Majority". They are
deliberate and have many informal social contacts. Rather than looking for
revolutionary changes to gain productivity enhancements in their firms, they
are motivated by evolutionary changes. They have three principles in the
adoption of new technology:
•
“When it
is time to move, let’s move all together”. This principle defines why
adoption increases so rapidly in the diffusion process and causes a landslide
in demand.
•
“When we
pick a vendor to lead us to the new paradigm, let us all pick the same one”.
This principle explains which firm will become the market leader.
•
“Once the
transition starts, the sooner we get it over with, the better”. This
principle shows why the transition stage occurs rapidly.
4.
LATE MAJORITY
The
next 34% of adopters are the "Late Majority". They are skeptical,
traditional and of lower socio-economic status. They are very price sensitive
and require completely preassembled, bulletproof solutions. They are motivated
to buy technology just to stay even with the competition and often rely on a
single, trusted adviser to help them make sense of technology.
5.
LAGGARDS
The last 16% of the adopters consists of
"Laggards". Laggards are technology skeptics who want only to
maintain the status quo. They tend not to believe that technology can enhance
productivity and are likely to block new technology purchases. Roger’s model
has found wide appeal and application in such disciplines as marketing and
management science. The model’s most significant application is the Bass
Diffusion Model where the process of how new innovations are adopted through
the interaction of current and potential users is described mathematically.
pros:
Adoption/Diffusion of Innovations theory
underlines the importance of differentiating customer segments. Furthermore, it
depicts the need to convince innovators and early adopters to first make an
innovation successful. Using ‘innovativeness’ as variable, Rogers was the first
person to group adopters in a scientific and meaningful way.
The model’s ideal types and percentages can be
used as a first draft to estimate target groups for communication purposes.
The model shows patterns of consumer adoption at
each of the various stages during a product's life cycle by focusing on
different characteristics of each adopter categories in terms of (1)
socioeconomic status (2) personality & values and (3) communication
behavior.
cons:
Critics of this model concluded that it is an
overly simplified representation of a complex reality. Adopters often fall
within different categories for different innovations: a current laggard can be
an early adopter the next time around.
The model is not predictive. It does not provide
insight in how well a new idea or product will do before it has gone through
its adoption curve.
Customers often adapt technology to their own
needs, so the innovation may actually change in usage when moving from the
early adopters to the majority of users. The model does not include these kinds
of mutations. The lubricant WD-40 is a famous example of such a mutation.
Disruptive technologies may radically change
the diffusion patterns for established technologies by starting a different
competing S-curve. The model does not provide pointers how to best manage such
transitions.
References:
•
ISBN 0887307175
•
Everett M. Rogers
•
1962
•
ISBN 0743222091
•
2003
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